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Scenario: Where to build or buy your next community?
Scenario: Where to build or buy your next community?

Identify areas of interest by analyzing the entire US for senior housing opportunity with the help of Analyses and Explorer.

David Wiggington avatar
Written by David Wiggington
Updated over 2 years ago

If you could build or buy your next community anywhere in the United States, where would it be? The goal of this analysis scenario is to help you use the Vision platform to find the ideal market for your company’s needs. Using the strategies outlined below, you will begin by looking at the entire country and narrow your focus down to a single site.

The first step to locating the ideal market for your next community is to conduct a Nationwide MSA Evaluation. You can read about this analysis type here. After conducting the Nationwide MSA Analysis, you are going to begin eliminating MSA’s due to both qualitative and quantitative factors.

You need to identify the criteria that are important to your company’s goals. There are many factors that can help you narrow down the markets you will consider. For example, qualitative criteria could include:

  • Regions of the United States

  • CON State Status

  • Regulatory Structure

  • Employment Restrictions

In the above image, you can see each MSA represented in the Explorer tool. For our example, we are focusing solely on the Southeast region. This is one of many qualitative factors to consider. Decide which factors are most important to you and ignore all non-qualified MSAs.

The next step in narrowing your search is to apply filters to find which markets support your ideal conditions. By using the “Filter Sites” section of the Explorer tool, apply any of the metrics in the Vision system to the MSAs you’re still considering. By deciding which factors are important to the success of a community for your company, you can create unique thresholds and qualifications for these markets. For example, apply Net Worth and Income Qualified metrics to look at the wealth of a MSA or Population demographics and Growth Rates to identify which MSAs are rapidly growing.

Once you have narrowed your search down to a couple of MSAs, the next step is to conduct a Sub-Market Evaluation on your selected markets. When looking at the potential market areas from a Sub-Market Evaluation you should consider the qualitative factors that would eliminate an area such as geographical barriers and location of competition.

Then use metric filters to eliminate unqualified markets in the area, similar to the process you used with the Nationwide MSA Evaluation. Metric filter categories to consider include:

  • Demographic Counts and Growth Rates

  • Income and Income Growth Rates

  • Home Value

  • Net Worth

  • Disability/Incidence Rates

  • Supply Counts

  • Construction

  • Demand (Based on your chosen methodologies)

This process of elimination will leave you with a few markets that are optimal for your target metrics.

In the above image, you can see all 258 sub-markets (census tracts) in the Raleigh, NC MSA. In the below image, you can see how we eliminated the unqualified markets in the MSA by applying filters. Using income, wealth, demand, and supply metrics we filtered our results down to 57 sub-markets with potential opportunity. Choose metrics and thresholds that best fit your build/buy criteria and are reasonable for the market.

The last step in choosing the best location to build or buy your next community is to find a land parcel or community that is available for sale or might consider a sale. Once you have identified the most attractive MSA and sub-markets, it is time to search for available land parcels in those markets or contact your real estate broker. When provided with a specific address or addresses, do a deep dive into the market area surrounding the property through a Group Evaluation.

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